Weathering the storm: A scenario-based approach to strengthening the NPT

consequences of nuclear weapons and persisting antagonism Weathering the storm: A scenario-based approach to strengthening the NPT 5 vis-a-vis the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) add to the consternation of many NPT States parties who view the treaty as complementary and supportive to the NPT. [...] 6 Weathering the storm: A scenario-based approach to strengthening the NPT Three The following section of this paper explores three scenarios addressing the trajectory of great power competition and its scenarios implications for the future of the NPT over the next five to ten years, encompassing the two subsequent review cycles. [...] The treaty was constructed on the foundation of a “grand bargain” based on, on the one hand, NWS’ commitment to “general and complete disarmament” and, on the other hand, the adherence of NNWS to nuclear non-proliferation obligations to maintain the balance deemed crucial for protecting the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. [...] The overwhelming majority of countries respond with outrage, perceiving it as a clear step up the nuclear escalation ladder.23 With the prohibition on nuclear testing woven into the fabric of the NPT, the implications of these developments for the health of the treaty are immense.24 Not only was the issue of negotiating a permanent ban on nuclear explosive testing central to NPT discourse since th. [...] Working paper by China, France, the Russian Federation, the United submitted by Ireland on behalf of the New Agenda Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Coalition (Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, United States of America,” 2020 Review Conference and South Africa,” Preparatory Committee for the 2026 of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Review Confer.