CHAPTER 3 MEGATRENDS AND HOMICIDE

In as “threat multipliers” that interact with other risk factors other words, the warmer the weather, the more likely and drivers, such as weak governance structures and people are to be outdoors and the closer their proximity.25 poverty, contributing to the outbreak and perpetuation Another approach, drawn from behavioural science and of violence.36 Owing to the effects of climate change, the neu. [...] Of note is The temperature is expected to continue to increase at the worrying increase in homicide projected in Africa up an almost constant rate in the future, only slowing near until 2035, as the region will see its share of the popula- the end of the century. [...] Yet, while the temperature increase may jection indicates that the increase in the homicide rate result in a milder climate in the more temperature regions, resulting from the increase in the share of the population most notably Europe, in regions such as Africa the same aged 15–19 in Africa could lead to an additional 11,000 increase could push the average temperature well above victims of intent. [...] On the other hand, the positive association this association in the form of a scatterplot comparing the between the number of hot days and the homicide rate102 homicide rate107 and the Gini index of income inequality of projects an increase in the homicide rate across most of all 144 countries with available data on both variables.108 the regions. [...] A simple estimate of the cross-national decline by just 5.3 per cent, indicating that the region will association between the Gini index and homicide rate was generated using a multivariate ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model of the association not accrue a substantial reduction in its homicide rate between the Gini index and the natural logarithm of the homicide rate, while based on the.