The desired goal is to weaken the against Ukraine that followed in its wake omy, government, or society and are best adversary and shift the balance of power in largely fell short of producing measurable classified as temporary nuisances. [...] Covertness in turn refers to hiding Recent studies found that the vast majori- Lennart Maschmeyer, “The Subversive Trilemma: Why Cyber Operations Fall Short the identity of the aggressor, such as ty of subversive operations aiming to over- of Expectations,” International Security 46:2 through the deployment of unmarked sol- throw regimes failed. [...] next steps are determining the larger stra- tegic goals the adversary aims to achieve, Reasons for Optimism impending counterrevolution and over- and then a careful examination of available Moreover, there are clear signs of unin- whelming public support for the Soviet in- evidence on the capacity of the instrument tended “blowback” of influence operations. [...] Consequently, what based on this evidence, a systematic assess- operations are described by experts like was supposed to be a short-term occupa- ment of the conditions under which these putting a virus in the bloodstream of your tion had to be extended for the rest of the different instruments can succeed helps enemy. [...] to realistically project what could happen in the future is to of the strategic role of the diverse Perhaps counterintuitively, closed and au- draw inferences from what hap- gray zone instruments grouped tocratic systems may be more vulnerable to pened in the past.
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