John Bruni SAGE International Adelaide, South Australia 22/01/24 In the midst of alarming headlines and global tensions, a nuanced examination of Iran's internal dynamics suggests a complex landscape that challenges the prevailing narrative of imminent conflict. [...] While technological advancements have occurred, especially in drones, the utility of cyber and ballistic missiles, the necessity of a supportive population for a high-intensity war remains unchanged. [...] However, the prolonged absence of genuine popularity for the ruling regime raises doubts about the duration and effectiveness of such a rallying were Iran to come under foreign attack. [...] Caveat: While there is a possibility of some level of public support in the face of external aggression, the internal dynamics of Iran, marked by fragmentation, corruption, and economic woes, suggest that the regime's cautious approach is rooted in the need to preserve its survival. [...] SAGE is partnered with Trends Research & Advisory in Abu Dhabi UAE, the International Development and Security Cooperation (IDSC) in Manila, the Philippines, AsiaPower Watch in Paris, France and the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
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