Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate Models - Roy W. Spencer, PhD

To estimate the level of global energy imbalance, researchers use long-term measurements of the gradual warming of the global average oceans to estimate the energy imbalance. [...] The members of this community assume that the rate of energy input into the climate system from the sun is, on average, exactly equal to the rate of energy loss to outer space from IR radiation when aver- aged globally and over many years. [...] Current claims of a climate crisis16 are invariably the result of reliance on the models producing the most warming, not on actual observations of the climate system which reveal unremarkable changes over the past century or more. [...] Global Warming of the Lower Atmosphere While near-surface air temperatures are clearly important to human activity, the warming experienced over the low atmosphere (approximately the lowest 10 kilometers of the “troposphere,” where the Earth’s weather occurs) is also of interest, especially given the satellite observations of this layer extending back to 1979.22 Satellites provide the only source. [...] The accumulation of energy in the deep oceans and the observed rate of warming of the global land and ocean surface over the past 100-plus years has been analyzed by scientists23 to determine just how much the climate system would eventually warm, and this leads to an estimate of 1.5°C to 1.8°C total future warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (2 x CO2).