Towards a Food System Transition in Germany: A Scenario Analysis of VAT

The rise of German sugar imports (Figure 4.4) plays no significant role for the explanation of the net UAA expansion in the RoEU, because the baseline share of agricultural land area used for sugar crop production in the RoEU is tiny in comparison to land use for livestock agriculture and for fruit / vegetable production, and the baseline volume of sugar exports from the RoEU to Germany is also ve. [...] Similarly, for the determination of changes in emissions from enteric fermentation, the 2020 emissions data for cattle, sheep, goats and horses from Vos et al (2022) are linked to the real output changes for the Bovine Cattle, Sheep, Goats, Horses sector of the CGE model, and the emission data for pigs from the same source to are linked to the real output changes for the Other Livestock Agricultur. [...] Similarly, for the determination of changes in emissions from enteric fermentation, the 2020 emissions data for cattle, sheep, goats and horses from Vos et al (2022a) are linked to the real output changes for the Bovine Cattle, Sheep, Goats, Horses sector of the CGE model, and the emission data for pigs from the same source to are linked to the real output changes for the Other Livestock Agricultu. [...] The social internal rate of return – that is the discount rate at which the present value of the social costs is equated to the present value of the social benefits – is 102 percent for the RewetLo scenario, 88 percent for the RewetHi scenario and 76 percent for the RewetHi+ scenario. [...] The household-specific preference parameters β and γ are initially calibrated such that the baseline microsimulation for the year 2018 exactly replicates the consumption expenditure patterns by household type and commodity group from the EVS displayed in Table 2.2 and the implied income elasticities are on average equal to the corresponding elasticities for the aggregate single household in the CG.