cover image: Potential Policy Confounds of Minimum Wage Employment Estimates Michael Reich

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Potential Policy Confounds of Minimum Wage Employment Estimates Michael Reich

24 Jan 2024

These policies are 1) the enactment of a California Earned Income Tax Credit (Cal-EITC) in 2015 and its subsequent expansion; 2) the expansions of Medi-Cal– California’s Medicaid program—and coverage of the American Care Act (ACA) in California during the treatment pe- riod; and 3) enhanced enforcement of minimum wage laws.1 The synthetic control method does not allow turning such programs on duri. [...] The state’s enforcement actions, measured by the number of citations issued and the dollar value of assessed penalties, began to increase in 2011 and rose sharply in 2017. [...] Taken together, the sheer magnitude of the programs helped the aggregate economy recover from the deep shock of the pandemic. [...] Given the phase-out levels and the higher incomes in CA and NY, we expected that the number of EIP checks per capita would be higher in the donor states than in the treated states. [...] The variation in spending per capita as a ratio of median household income was somewhat greater, ranging from 8.8 percent in CA and 10.5 percent in NY to 12 percent in GA, 17.7 percent in MS, 11.3 percent in PA and 10.7 percent in TX.
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