China’s ‘Three Warfares’ Strategy in Action: Implications for the Sino-India Boundary, the Arctic, and Antarctica

Introduction China’s ‘three warfares’ strategy (TWS) is critical to its military strategy against India and beyond. The TWS will likely be effective in securing gains against states with which China has contested land frontiers and states in regions where it has no territorial disputes. For instance, Beijing is increasingly making territorial encroachments in areas such as the Arctic and Antarctica, where it is not a party to any dispute. The TWS ties in with China’s overall strategy, which is based on cost, efficiency, and cumulative long-term payoffs. China’s continued refusal to vacate at least two key areas it occupied in April-May 2020 [a] demonstrates the success of the TWS in making gains at low cost. The growth of Chinese power has facilitated China’s actions in Ladakh and the polar regions. As power grows, it generates new goals, interests, and opportunities for tremendous and near-great powers. [1] The TWS is aligned with the Chinese strategic tradition of being calculative and patient and exploiting opportunities to secure gains with the least resistance from opponents and low exertion on China’s part. The expansion of Chinese power has further reinforced and enabled these elements.