Balancing deterrence with assurances – policy coordination between security partners in the

4 Balancing deterrence with assurances – policy coordination between security partners in the Asia-Pacific Introduction The risk of conflict in the Asia-Pacific is becoming a concern for Australia, Japan, and South Korea – security partners and main allies of the United States (US) in the Asia-Pacific – and, to some extent, for countries outside the region with significant strategic interests in t. [...] AUKUS has become another sticking point in the IAEA, the demise of the INF treaty has opened the way for the United States to plan the deployment of ground-based intermediate-range missile capabilities in the region. [...] institutional framework The UK can also play an important role in communicating these assurances: to China through its position as a P5 state in the UN; (who will be providing and to North Korea through the embassy in London, and the UK such assurances?) Balancing deterrence with assurances – policy coordination between security partners in the Asia-Pacific 17 embassy in Pyongyang as soon as the o. [...] Complexity: the challenge of maintaining the credibility of assurances in a twin-crisis One complication of defining assurances is connected to maintaining assurances in a ‘dual crisis’ involving the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.45 Many decision-makers and experts, particularly in South Korea, fear that China and North Korea may exploit a crisis in one theatre to gain advantages in anoth. [...] *** Military build-ups by regional states, the scarcity of diplomatic and military channels between Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the UK on the one side, as well as China and North Korea on the other side, are clear indications that deterrence will remain the predominant stabiliser in the Asia-Pacific.