T H E D I P L O M A

Due to the willingness of most of the world to go on buying Russian energy and the collapse of imports from the West, Russia’s current account surplus grew to $16.6 billion in the third quarter of 2023.25 As a result, there is now little realistic prospect of further Ukrainian territorial gains on the battlefield, and there is a significant risk that Ukraine might exhaust its manpower and munition. [...] The extension of prosperity and democracy beyond Western Europe — first to the Mediterranean countries, then to the former communist states of eastern Europe — was assisted, in a series of stages, by the establishment, strengthening and expansion of the European Union. [...] One of the reasons Putin and the Russian military command settled on an attrition strategy following the failure of their initial bid to capture Kyiv was the difficulty in fighting a war of maneuver in the face of Western high–technology weaponry and advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. [...] Such steps might begin to address Moscow’s not altogether unreasonable concern that Ukraine and the West might intend to use negotiations merely to buy time for 37 | The Diplomatic Path to a Secure Ukraine rearmament and enable a future Ukrainian offensive in the war — a fear that is parallel to the same concern about Russia expressed by Western critics of diplomacy.69 Francois Hollande’s and Ange. [...] Ukrainian representatives are in no position to negotiate over the broader contours of Europe’s security architecture, which the Kremlin regards as the central issue of the war, and which pivots on the policies of the United States and its influence over NATO allies.