Protected: A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections

The “grand coalition” of the EPP and the S&D, which lost a majority in the parliament for the first time in 2019, is set to lose seats, holding 42 per cent of the total, compared to its current 45 per cent. [...] In addition, the majority of the non-attached MEPs are from extreme right parties, meaning that with their support, majority coalitions could form to the right of RE for the first time in the history of the European Parliament. [...] The dramatic increase in the number of MEPs to the right of the EPP is likely to seriously limit the EU’s actions to tackle the climate crisis. [...] It is often said that the European Parliament elections are essentially 27 national elections, and while the national debates that take place in the run-up to the June 2024 elections will not affect the shape of the governments in the member states, they will affect the positions that the heads of state or government feel able to take in the months and years that follow the elections. [...] Meanwhile, on the left, the new Sumar alliance of the radical left and the greens is set to lose votes compared to the 2023 national election and compared to the combined vote share of the constituent parties in the 2019 European Parliament election.