cover image: IRAN: FROM STRATEGIC PATIENCE TO STRATEGIC IMPASSE? - EXPERT BRIEF research.sharqforum.org

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IRAN: FROM STRATEGIC PATIENCE TO STRATEGIC IMPASSE? - EXPERT BRIEF research.sharqforum.org

14 Feb 2024

Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the revolution that took place in 1979, Tehran initiated the revolution-exporting project and vehemently put the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem at the center of its official rhetoric. [...] Taking advantage of the windows of opportunity created by the turmoil caused by the Arab Spring, Tehran has increased its influence in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon through Hezbollah and has established a serious influence - more accurately, tutelage - over the policies of the capitals of the mentioned countries. [...] The Houthis, who seriously affected the global maritime trade1 in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait with their attacks, quickly drew the wrath of the US and UK and was subjected to attacks.2 Despite this, Tehran seems to have made considerable progress in its mission to create a second Hezbollah from the Houthis after the outbreak of the Gaza crisis. [...] Therefore, it is clear that the Erbil attack is a new stage in Iran’s ‘missile diplomacy.’14 4 Strategic Patience: Quo Vadis? The Iranian state mind has put forth the concept of ‘strategic patience’15 in the aftermath of the assassination of IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani by the US in Baghdad in January 2020. [...] However, the recent developments in the Middle East, which is on fire, and the fact that an attack carried out by Iran-backed militias led to the death of three US soldiers in Jordan and injured dozens of others indicate that Tehran may be stuck in a “strategic stalemate.” The serious escalation of tension caused by the killing of US soldiers increases the risk dosage for Iran.
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Türkiye