cover image: Currency gains, trade contraction, and remittance normalization: key drivers of Georgia's revised 2024 GDP forecast

20.500.12592/905qmvs

Currency gains, trade contraction, and remittance normalization: key drivers of Georgia's revised 2024 GDP forecast

26 Feb 2024

• Based on December data, the annual growth in 2024 is expected to be 7.8% in the worst-case scenario, and 9.4% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. [...] In contrast to domestic currency deposits, foreign currency total deposits increased relatively moderately by 2.7% compared to the same month of the previous year. [...] In 2022, there was a substantial surge in the influx of Russian citizens relocating to Georgia in the aftermath of Russia's conflict in Ukraine, and they subsequently remitted funds for their personal expenditures. [...] While the appreciation of the Georgian Lari positively impacts the Georgian population due to heavy reliance on imports and significant levels of debt dollarization (a notable portion of businesses having income and liabilities in different currencies), it simultaneously diminishes the competitiveness of exports. [...] The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the first month of the next quarter.

Authors

Nikoloz Pkhakadze

Pages
3
Published in
Georgia