Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment

Hundreds to thousands of activists gathered outside the Baymaksky Court in the days leading up to the public announcement of Alsynov’s sentence, suggesting that the size of the protests on January 17 was not necessarily spontaneous.[41] Russian authorities appear to be better equipped to handle the Bashkortostan protests than the October 2023 Dagestan protests. [...] The Russian Investigative Committee announced on January 17 that it is opening a criminal investigation into the protest for the organization of and participation in “mass riots” and for the use of violence against authorities.[42] Multiple Telegram channels that the Bashkort activists reportedly used to coordinate and spread news of the protest became temporarily unavailable on January 17, a poss. [...] The Investigative Committee’s prompt announcement also suggests that the Russian government is monitoring and potentially responding to demands of the Russian ultranationalist community — a subsection of the Russian information space that it routinely attempts to cultivate and co-opt to advance government narratives. [...] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northeast of Bakhmut near Vesele, Bilohorivka (21km northeast of Bakhmut), and Spirne; north of Bakhmut near Rozdolivka; northwest of Bakhmut near Hryhorivka, and Bohdanivka; west of Bakhmut near Khromove and Ivanivske; and southwest of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka and Andriivka.[75] A Russian milblogger claimed that the rate. [...] Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that positional engagements continued northwest of Avdiivka near Novokalynove, Novobakhmutivka, and Stepove; near the Avdiivka Coke Plant in northwestern Avdiivka; northeast of Avdiivka near Kamianka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Sieverne, Pervomaiske, and Nevelske.[80] A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian rate of advance near the water treatment fac.