Key Considerations for China’s Growth in 2024

But it is necessary to stress that this headline growth figure is not indicative of a recovery in confidence levels, which is crucial for a reversal to China’s current economic weakness and to strengthen growth in a sustainable manner. [...] Firstly, robust growth in Q1 thanks to the government’s decision to lift zero-COVID restrictions in December 2022, which led to an improvement in business conditions and to a release of pent-up demand. [...] Let’s say that the government were to release a stimulus package of similar magnitude to the one that it released during the Global Financial Crisis, which was worth RMB 4 trillion or 12.5 percent of nominal GDP in 2008. [...] While this could lead to some years of good growth, the tradeoff would be the exacerbation of the systemic risks and structural imbalances that underpin the current economic weakness. [...] 3 Key Considerations for China’s Growth in 2024 ConferenceBoard.org about:blank China Center About the Author Alfredo Montufar-Helu, Head of the China Center China Center, The Conference Board THE CONFERENCE BOARD is the member-driven think tank that deliver.