The past and future of NHS waiting lists in England

This increase in the waiting list was driven by the simple fact that the number of new patients joining the list was greater than the number leaving the list. [...] But the NHS achieved a very large reduction in the number waiting this long, with the level in July 2022 88% lower than the peak of 24,424 pathways in January 2022 (around the time the target was set). [...] The waiting list has grown by less in the South West, London and the North East & Yorkshire than it has in the East of England and the North West. [...] The second is what happens to the number of patients joining the waiting list, which will depend on growth in the demand for care and how easily patients can join the waiting list.9 Together, these will determine what happens to the waiting list in months and years to come. [...] For the number of new patients joining the waiting list, we start from the modelling in the NHS workforce plan (NHS England, 2023a), which suggests that demand for acute care will grow by 2.9% per year on average between 2021–22 and 2036–37.10 For the number of patients being treated from the waiting list, one possible starting point would be the target in the elective backlog recovery plan for ac.