Technical supplement - Analysis Methodology Housing Production

For states with high growth or more severe underproduction, the rate at which housing is built would need to grow significantly compared to the growth rate average in the last decade (nearly by a factor of 2 in CO and DC), for the shortage to be solved by 2033. [...] The analysis uses census block level VMT data from 2022 to retrieve the distribution of average VMT per capita for each state and the 90 th percentile lowest VMT per capita. [...] By contrast, the low VMT case assumes that 90 percent of the new housing is associated with the 90th percentile lowest VMT per capita, while the other 10 percent of new housing corresponds to the current state average VMT per capita. [...] The estimate for target VMT for new housing in our ‘low VMT’ scenario is based on the distribution of VMT per capita at the census block level. [...] At the same time, the analysis is conservative because it excludes likely synergies from added housing in reducing residential VMT for existing residents in the low VMT scenario due to improved transit and accessibility to local destinations.