Forecasts and expected El Niño-related hazards • Historical impact of previous El Niño events in the country • Typical influence of El Niño between January–June in the country • Seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast for the first semester of 2024 Existing vulnerabilities to El Niño impacts • 2023 impact of El Niño in the country and materialisation of seasonal forecasts and alerts issued. [...] El Niño-related temperature and precipitation anomalies are expected to continue important to note that each El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is unique, and the during the first and second quarters of the year, particularly in tropical and subtropical effects observed in the past may not necessarily occur in the current El Niño. [...] There are also concerns that the outbreak could worsen with the Pre-existing humanitarian crises and vulnerabilities to El Niño rainy season, especially with the challenges the country is facing in the WASH and health sectors (UNICEF 28/12/2023 and 15/08/2023; OCHA 30/11/2023). [...] Projected hazards for January–June 2024 and main exposed localities For the same period, above-average rainfall is forecast in Indonesia and parts of Papua Seasonal forecasts for the February–April period anticipate near-normal rainfall in most of the New Guinea, which experienced dry conditions in most of the country in the previous country, except for the northern provinces, where precipitation. [...] The In 2024, the main impacts of El Niño will be on health, with a potential spike of waterborne, probability of near-normal and above-average rainfall in some areas of the country presents vector-borne, and heat-related diseases and the health impacts of wildfires.
- Pages
- 30
- Published in
- Switzerland
