Using Modeling and Simulation to Advance Effects-Based Security Forces Planning: Developing Prototype Approaches to Estimate Risk Reduction Across Security Missions

Lawrence, Anthony; Najera Chesler, Aisha; Light, Thomas; Kilambi, Vikram; Jackson, Brian A.; Emslie, Paul; Frelinger, David R.

This report summarizes research on how top-down risk analysis models could help inform the staffing, systems, and strategies for the U.S. Air Force Security Forces. Although existing security planning supports bottom-up, asset-based security planning, such processes do not fully explore the risk trade-offs, nor do they identify opportunities for SF strategies to manage multiple risks simultaneously.