• We forecast wage growth to continue slowing as the labour market continues to cool: With vacancies falling steadily since mid-2022, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio was 0.7 in the three months to January. [...] National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk Monthly Wage Tracker March 24 - 3 - Vacancies and employment Today’s release suggests that the employment rate fell slightly on the quarter to 75.0 per cent, the unemployment rate was largely unchanged on the quarter at 4.0 per cent, and the inactivity rate increased marginally on the quarter to 21.8 per cent. [...] Figure 2 plots the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio, which stood at 0.68 in the three months to January, compared to an average of 0.52 in 2015-2019 and a historical average of 0.42. [...] In fact, the number of job vacancies fell by 43,000 on the quarter in the three months to February 2024, representing a 4.5 per cent decrease and marking the 20th consecutive period in which vacancy numbers have fallen. [...] On the latter point, the rate of contraction in demand for staff was the quickest recorded since 2021 – with permanent vacancies falling for yet another month, and temporary vacancies falling for the first time in over three years.
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