Gas Statement of Opportunities - March 2024 - For Australia’s East Coast Gas Market

Similar to the 2023 GSOO, the potential to electrify gas loads in the residential, commercial and certain industrial sectors accounts for much of the downward trend in gas consumption over the outlook period. [...] 1.1 Scenarios Considering the uncertainties in the speed and extent of gas sector transformation, AEMO uses scenarios and sensitivities to explore the needs of gas consumers and the adequacy of gas infrastructure to meet those needs. [...] • Annual residential and small commercial gas consumption is forecast to decline in the short term in line with recently observed trends, and in the long term due to the potential to fuel-switch to electric alternatives across the residential, commercial and, to a lesser extent, industrial sectors. [...] The key drivers for the consumption trends in these forecasts include the following observations for the Step Change scenario: © AEMO 2024 | Gas Statement of Opportunities 21 Gas consumption and demand forecasts • The forecast for residential consumption has been revised down relative to the 2023 GSOO due to recent sharp reductions in per household consumption observed in 2023. [...] The prices forecast are lower than in the 2023 GSOO, reflecting the impact of the Code in the near term, and use adjusted assumptions on LNG netback prices42 and supply and demand forecasts in the long term.