Togo - Joint World Bank-IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis (English)

The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) assesses Togo to be at moderate risk of external debt distress and high overall risk of public debt distress-unchanged from the DSA published in April 2020. While the mechanical results point to a low risk of external debt distress, judgement was applied given Togo's elevated exposure to domesticcurrency debt and limited information about the residency of its holders. The overall risk of debt distress remains high, as the present value (PV) of the public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 55 percent and is projected to stay above the threshold until end-2025 under the baseline. Credible fiscal consolidation and robust economic growth remain key to reducing debt vulnerabilities, while a prudent medium-term debt strategy aimed at reducing the cost of debt and lengthening maturities would make an important contribution. A prudent debt strategy is even more important giventhe risks to the outlook, including terrorist attacks and food insecurity, rollover risks from the relatively short maturitynof Togo's large domestic currency debt, and contingent liabilities related to the financial sector, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and public-private partnerships (PPPs).