The methodology compares the capacity need if sources of electricity supply and demand are aggregated across the Interconnect, which accounts for how geographic diversity in hourly electricity demand and supply patterns decreases the need for capacity, against the larger sum of the component regions’ stand-alone capacity needs. [...] This geographic diversity benefit equates to 20.99% of the sum of the peak loads of the component regions over the last five years, supporting the creation of a default minimum requirement for all regions somewhere in the range of 20-25% of peak load. [...] Due to a lack of data, it was conservatively assumed that forced outages were at the same uniform rate (3% for NYISO and ISO-NE, and 5% for all other regions) for regions for which information on forced outages during the cold snap events was not available, and for all regions in all hours outside of the three major cold snaps. [...] The basic methodology was to compare the difference between the aggregated capacity need across the Eastern Interconnect and ERCOT, which accounts for how geographic diversity in hourly electricity demand and supply patterns decreases the need for capacity, against the larger sum of the component regions’ stand-alone capacity needs. [...] To account for this misalignment, we pulled hourly load and wind generation for the entire MISO region for 2012-201524 and used IMM reported installed capacity for MISO for 2012-2015.25 To account for the addition of MISO S at the end of 2013 we subtracted hourly load and MISO S installed capacity from our MISO N hourly load and installed capacity.
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- 20
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- United States of America
