• Calculated the LIL share across GSOO zones based on the location of the LILs and the ratio of actual consumption in 2022 and reduced the LIL consumption forecast for each GSOO zone by this share. [...] • Calculated the direct fuel-switching share for each GSOO zone, based on the location of the LILs and the ratio of actual consumption in 2022, and reduced the LIL consumption forecast for each GSOO zone by this share. [...] The regression model for each region produced an upper 95% and lower 5% confidence interval for the heating and baseload (model intercept) coefficients and was applied across the scenarios, with the lower band applied to the scenarios that have the lowest population setting for Tariff V consumption and the upper band applied to the scenario with the highest population setting. [...] For each year in the forecast, the total forecast gas consumption followed the following calculation: • Weather normalised consumption for the region in the reference year as calculated in step one. [...] Temperature (T312) and Degree Days (DD312) Similar to the calculation of 𝐷𝐷312 for the HDD calculation for the other regions, the average of the eight three-hourly Melbourne temperature readings from 3:00 am to 12:00 am the following day inclusive was taken.
- Pages
- 43
- Published in
- Australia
