What Will the Political Fallout Be From the Moscow Terrorist Attack?

When confronted with a shocking event that puts the Russian regime under stress, the Kremlin’s reaction is often drastic and sometimes asymmetrical. This tactic allows the country’s leadership to conceal its confusion, regain the initiative, and take advantage of the public shock to strengthen its own position. In 2004, for example, following the Beslan school hostage crisis in which over 300 people were killed, including nearly 200 children, the Kremlin cited the tragedy as a reason to scrap direct elections for regional governors. Other stressful events for the Kremlin, from the deadly bombing of the St. Petersburg metro in 2017 to mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny last summer, passed without political consequences. Right now, it’s unclear into which category the terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue on March 22 will fall. So far, the Russian leadership has avoided making any definitive declarations, and most statements by public figures are simply attempts to guess the Kremlin’s future response.