The Ukraine war is at a crossroads – it’s time Europe stands up

The war in Ukraine has reached a tipping point. Despite recent tactical gains and successful drone strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure Kyiv’s prospects look increasingly bleak, not for want of courage or commitment by the undermanned and underarmed Ukrainian armed forces.Unless the US congress passes the stalled $US60bn ($91.5bn) aid package to Ukraine or Europe ramps up military assistance, the poorly led but numerically superior Russian army could grind its way to an unlikely victory.This seemed improbable 18 months ago when Ukraine’s forces succeeded in pushing back Russia’s armoured columns, raising hopes that Kyiv eventually could retake Crimea and expel Vladimir Putin’s legions from Ukraine altogether.Optimism has given way to a dourer mood reflecting the grim reality that Ukraine cannot prevail without a continuation of substantial Western aid and weaponry.In recent testimony to the US Senate Intelligence Committee, CIA director William Burns said “the war is at a crossroads” and US aid was vital to the outcome. “The Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity,” Burns said. “They’re running out of ammunition. And we’re running out of time to help them.”The cascading consequences of a Putin triumph would be universally bad news, not only for Western democracies but also for all countries invested in protecting their people and independence from predatory neighbours.If Putin can successfully invade a sovereign country with impunity, the law of the jungle will prevail over the rule of law and autocrats everywhere will be emboldened, including in Asia. China, North Korea and Iran are watching closely to see if Putin is proved right – that Russia will win because the West lacks staying power.Western nations leapt to Ukraine’s defence in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion, showing uncustomary resolve.Two years on that resolve is faltering as war fatigue sets in and public support wanes in Europe, Ukraine and the US. A recent Elabe poll in France recorded an 11 per cent fall in public support for economic and financial aid to Ukraine.Only 14 per cent endorsed increased military aid. More Ukrainians want to trade land for an uncertain peace, doubling from 10 to 19 per cent since the war began, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology says.