Tongan attitudes to the world

In 2023, Tonga’s Tupou Tertiary Institute (TTI) surveyed more than 1,000 citizens to better understand Tongans’ attitudes to the world. The survey was modelled on the annual Lowy Institute Poll and funded by the Australian government. The results show that geopolitical competition and the quest for influence is concerning Tongan people.Tonga is at the centre of rising strategic attention. Australia and New Zealand are both doubling down on efforts to remain primary development and security partners in a competitive development domain.In 1998, Tonga switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China and was rewarded with large Chinese loans to finance infrastructure projects, but now they face hefty debt repayments. The United States is also vying for Tongan favour and to balance Chinese influence. A new US embassy was opened in Tonga in May 2023 and President Joe Biden announced increased aid in September. The United Kingdom has re-opened its diplomatic mission and Japan is increasing engagement, too.It is a lot of pressure on a small nation. With all this attention, who do Tongans trust? Sustained and historic relations seem to hold sway, with New Zealand top-ranked followed by Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom. More recent and distant regional interlocutors are trusted less — Russia, India and China.Tongans worry about external influences on political processes, with nearly 90 per cent concerned about China’s influence. Fewer Tongans, but still a lot, are concerned about the influence of the United States (70 per cent) and Australia (65 per cent). Like others in the region, there’s a perception that sovereignty is on the line as geopolitics heats up.Beyond the political jostling, issues affecting safety are keenly felt. Six out of ten reported feeling “unsafe” or “very unsafe”. The worrying issues reflect concerns elsewhere in the region. During polling, Covid-19 was still the most critical perceived threat to safety (79 per cent). Health security has long been high on the Pacific agenda. Beyond communicable diseases such as Covid and measles, another killer lurks. Non-communicable diseases including heart disease and diabetes are the leading cause of deaths in Tonga, and elsewhere in the Pacific.Surprisingly, about three-quarters of Tongans judged international terrorism to also be a big concern, despite no terror threats in their country, although terrorism and conflict can have impacts on Tonga via supply chain interruptions and inflation.Given all the international focus on Pacific security pacts and agreements, what are Tongan perceptions of international security and defence policies?