FORECAST INDICATORS Military escalation scenario 5% • Russia blamed Ukraine for the March 22 attack on a concert hall 25% in Moscow despite the Islamic State claiming responsibility and denials from Kyiv and the U. [...] Risk level – medium • Russian oil companies are facing delays in payments for exports as banks in China, the UAE, and Turkey are becoming more cautious due to the potential impact of U. [...] Ukraine What happened: The largest private energy business in Ukraine, DTEK, claimed the loss of 50% of its generating capacity as a result of a major Russian strike on the country’s energy system. [...] Recovery from the attack, which severely damaged the company’s generation and distribution systems, will take months, with the full extent of the damage and necessary repairs still being assessed. [...] Russia/North Korea What happened: Russia has started supplying oil directly to North Korea in return for the transfer of munitions and missiles, and the U.
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