P - rospects & P erspectives T

But this growth in capability will take time, and it may be that time is not a luxury afforded to Australia in the face of increasing regional risks, including the potential for major power competition between China and the United States to slide into a major war over a flashpoint such as the Taiwan Strait, perhaps as early as the second half of this decade. [...] Restructuring for modern times The Fleet Review, which was undertaken independently by a small team of experts following the 2023 release of the DSR, recognized the need for a larger “surface fleet of warships with greater capability in integrated air and missile defence, multi-domain strike and undersea warfare.” To address this challenge, the Fleet Review structures the future Navy into nine Tie. [...] And the issue of whether a fleet of even twenty warships – the end state of the review – is sufficient needs to be considered. [...] Once Australia starts acquiring the Virginia class SSNs in the 2030s, ironically at much the same time as the Fleet Review starts delivering real capability enhancements, then the Australian Navy’s operational strength really starts to grow. [...] (Malcolm Davis is Senior Analyst, Australian Strategic Policy Institute.) Editor’s Note: The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or the position of the Prospect Foundation.