The Long-Run Effects of Conditional Cash Transfers: the Case of Bolsa

Then, we take advantage of the rich module of retrospective questions of the PNAD 2014 and compute for each individual the likelihood that their household of origin was beneficiary of the program in the past. [...] Hence, our findings contribute to the literature on the effects of CCTs by providing first evidence on the long-term effects of one of the pioneering programs worldwide and shedding light on the mechanisms that connect the accumulation of human capital with the performance of individuals in the labor market. [...] The group of covariates includes the maximum level of education attained by parents (considering the one with the highest educational level), the occupational category of fathers and mothers, the state of residency and the location area (rural or urban). [...] Then, the estimate of the δ parameter is the difference-in-differences coefficient (DD) and, under the parallel trends assumption, captures the causal effect of the program in the long term. [...] (2023) in order to test the existence of parallel pre-trends and the sensitivity of the results to violations of the parallel trends assumption.