Bhutan - Public Expenditure Review

Despite Bhutan’s distinctive geographical and economic challenges, Bhutan has maintained a relatively high average real GDP growth rate of 8.8 percent over FY00-01-FY09-10, which is greater than the average of South Asian countries as well as low and middle-income economies. Bhutan's mountainous topography and dense network of rivers offer vast hydropower potential, which the country has been harnessing since the mid-1980s with the commissioning of the Chhukha Hydropower Project in 1986. However, due to a slower rate of growth of hydropower capacity, real GDP growth in Bhutan declined over the last decade, averaging only 3.5 percent, which was lower than the growth rates of regional peers and middle-income economies. Bhutan maintained a relatively strong fiscal position prior to COVID, but the situation has deteriorated recently. Bhutan's revenue to GDP ratio averaged at around 30 percent of GDP over FY10-11 and FY21-22, supported by revenue from hydropower projects and sizable external grants. However, revenue was on a declining trend that was further exacerbated by the onset of COVID-19. The pandemic necessitated an expansionary fiscal stance and led to delays in the commissioning of new hydropower projects. In the aftermath of the pandemic, despite a rapid phasing out of extraordinary outlays and containment in current expenditures, the government continued to provide fiscal support to boost economic activity by frontloading the 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) covering 2018-2023, resulting in a rise in capital expenditure. Consequently, the fiscal deficit widened from around 2 percent in FY18-19 to 6.7 percent of GDP in FY20-21 and further to 8.4 percent in FY21-22, the highest in over a decade. A Fiscal Sustainability Analysis (FSA) based on the MTMF assumptions indicates that fiscal consolidation is critical to ensure fiscal sustainability. The fiscal situation significantly worsens if capital expenditures are maintained at current levels of 18.1 percent of GDP rather than reducing them to 10.2 percent in the medium term as assumed in the MTMF. The fiscal outlook depends crucially on the commissioning dates of the hydropower projects. Bhutan needs to prepare for contingent scenarios and create fiscal buffers that could protect the country from negative shocks.