NI ESR Monthly GDP Tracker - UK Economy on the Road to Recovery in 2024 Following the Mild

Figure 5 – UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Figure 6 shows a heat map of the data surprises across sectors in the monthly data, relative to last month’s GDP Tracker, highlighting the sectors where the surprises are large relative to the volatility of the output data. [...] National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk Monthly GDP Tracker March 24 - 6 - Sectoral detail GDP contracted in the three months to January, driven by contractions in the construction and manufacturing sectors, with no growth in the services sector to offset these declines (Figure 7). [...] Figure 7 - Contributions to quarterly GDP growth (percentage points) Services (80 per cent of GDP) The survey balances point to improved activity in the services sector at the start of 2024, as shown by the survey indicators in figures 4 and 8. [...] Our first estimate of growth for any particular quarter starts in the first month of that quarter and is then updated each month until the first official release in the second month of the following quarter. [...] So, for example, our first estimate of growth in the first quarter of 2020 was published in January and then updated four times (in February, March, April, and May) before the ONS published its first estimate for the first quarter of 2020 in May 2020.