cover image: REPORT — FEBRUARY 2024 Revenge, implosion or reform - three


REPORT — FEBRUARY 2024 Revenge, implosion or reform - three

26 Mar 2024

Considering the potential ramifications of a Russian defeat in Ukraine for the regime in Moscow, Section IV introduces three distinct scenarios: the consolidation of power in the Kremlin, the dissolution of power leading to turmoil, and a genuine re-federalization of Russia. [...] Given the autocratic nature of Russia’s political system, enforced through violence and the steadfast loyalty of power elites to the Moscow centre, the consolidation of power in the Kremlin appears the most plausible, albeit the least desirable, outcome of a military defeat in Ukraine. [...] The second layer is Byzantine, relating to the fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Empire in 1453 and the emergence of Moscow’s claim to be the successor of the Byzantine Empire, also known as “the third Rome”, the centre of the Eastern Orthodox Church. [...] Given the authoritarian nature of the political system, the agency of different actors has always been limited by Russia’s supreme ruler- the Tsar, Secretary General of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union or President of the Russian Federation. [...] The dissolution of power in the Kremlin followed by a violent struggle among the central elites or between the central and local elites would is highly undesirable scenario for Ukraine and the West due to the inherent unpredictability and instability of such a process.
Published in