The IMPACT NCD - technical appendix

Comparing the disease outcomes from the life courses under the baseline scenario versus the policy scenarios generates the health impact of the policy scenarios. [...] Figure 2-1 – Example of risk factor assignment for the synthetic population: Plot of the systolic blood pressure quantiles of a male synthetic individual living in QIMD 3 area for ages 40 and 60 40 (2013) 60 (2033) 9 The approach described above provides us with equations to estimate the distribution of the exposure to a risk factor for a given time and the sociodemographic characteristics of a sy. [...] When the synthetic individual enters the simulation, a vector of random numbers between 0 and 1 and of size equal to the number of the modelled exposures is allocated to them. [...] It depends on the relative risk associated with the risk factor and the prevalence of the risk factor in the population. [...] A synthetic individual within the model may die of multiple causes within one year; however, the discrete-time nature of the simulation does not allow the identification of the cause that ‘killed’ the simulant first.