Russia after two years of full-scale war. Fragile stability and growing aggressiveness

The continued rise of the siloviki The•full-scale•aggression•against•Ukraine•has further cemented the role of the Russian secret services in the state system.•They•guarantee•the•integrity• of• the•current•political•regime,•and•ensure• its• growing•control•over•society.• The security•sector•(the•Foreign•Intelligence•Service,•SVR;•the•Federal•Secu- rity•Service,•FSB;•the•Federal•Protection•Service,•. [...] Putin the indispensable Putin’s legitimacy in the eyes of the public is primarily being built up by projecting an image of him as the saviour of the nation as he leads an existential, ‘defensive’ war against the West, where the survival of the Russian state and identity is at stake.•Since•the•Prigozhin•mutiny,•Putin• has•also•positioned•himself•as•a ‘good•tsar’•who•is•eager•to•get•in•touch•with•th. [...] Outlook In the near term, the sanctions and the costs of the war are likely to fur- ther degrade the Russian economy; this will make stabilising the situa- tion a major challenge for the Kremlin.•It•is•difficult•to•estimate•how•long• the•resources•available•will•allow•Russia•to•press•on•with•its•invasion.•The•gov- ernment’s•accumulated•reserves•were•already•seriously•depleted•in•2022,•but• we shou. [...] The military situation has required Moscow to accelerate the expansion of its military potential, which had been visible since the middle of the pre- vious decade; and to increase its engagement, which has altered the pre- viously unfavourable frontline proportions for the Russian Armed Forces.• 31 OSW REPORT 2/2024 At•the•threshold•of•the•third•year•of•the•war,•however,•the•numerical•advan- tage•. [...] 50 OSW REPORT 2/2024 The civilisational turn: the new ideology of Russian foreign policy The•openly•anti-Western•course•in•Russia’s•foreign•policy•is•reflected•in•the• ideological• sphere.• The narrative constructed by Moscow describes the conflict with the West in existential terms.