NIESR Monthly Wage Tracker - Real Pay Growth at a Two-Year High Amidst Falling Inflation

We expect wage growth rate to continue slowing as the labour market gradually cools in the second quarter, however, the 9.8 percent rise in national minimum wage in April (for those aged 21 and over) may keep wage growth elevated. [...] National Institute of Economic and Social Research niesr.ac.uk Monthly Wage Tracker April 24 - 3 - Vacancies and employment Today’s release suggests that the employment rate fell slightly on the quarter to 74.5 per cent, while the unemployment rate slightly increased on the quarter to 4.2 per cent, reaching its highest level since August 2023, and indicating that the labour market continues to coo. [...] In fact, the number of job vacancies fell by 13,000 on the quarter in the three months to March 2024, representing a 1.4 per cent decrease and marking the 21st consecutive period in which vacancy numbers have fallen. [...] Figure 2 illustrates that the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has remained stable in recent months, with a small reduction in the three months to February, and after steadily falling from the historically high levels recorded in 2022. [...] While wage growth is expected to slow down to its historical levels in the medium-term, the current persistence of high wage growth, together with the 9.8 percent rise in minimum wage in April (for those aged 21 and over) means inflation may be stickier than previously thought, leading the Bank of England to remain cautious against an early rate cut.