OSW Commentary - Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

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OSW Commentary - Facing another Zeitenwende. How Germany could react to a possible victory for Trump

15 Apr 2024

The SPD, the Greens, the FDP and The SPD, the Greens, the FDP and the CDU/CSU are the CDU/CSU are all seriously con- all seriously concerned about the highly probable cerned about the highly probable scenario of Trump’s becoming the Republican Par- scenario of Trump’s becoming the ty’s presidential nominee and his potential victory. [...] At the same time, if a new US president questions the point of the Alliance’s existence or the US’s membership of it, Germany, like the other European NATO members, will face the dilemma of whether and how to develop defence and deterrence in Europe – either within NATO or within the EU’s structures. [...] Given the lack of a clear-cut vision for the future of the EU, the weakening of Germany’s role as a European leader after February 2022 and concerns about the escalation of the war in Ukraine, the tactic of ‘waiting out’ Trump which Germa- ny employed during his first term may not work this time. [...] In the long run, the rise of isolation- Given the lack of a clear-cut vision for the future of ist tendencies in American society the EU, the weakening of Germany’s role as a Eu- may prompt Berlin to ‘Europeanise’ ropean leader after February 2022 and concerns NATO and/or place greater em- about escalation of the war in Ukraine, the tactic phasis on strengthening the EU as of ‘waiting out’ Trump w. [...] Germany also utilises American research centres such as the Atlantic Council, the Aspen Institute, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Stimson Center to consolidate transatlantic cooperation.

Authors

Lidia Gibadło; Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Pages
8
Published in
Poland