Fast-Falling Battery Prices Boost Economic Benefits Expected from Heavy-Duty

In the prior forecast (labeled “@prior”), BEHDV are projected to cost less than the diesel alternative in two of five vehicle price comparisons.11 Long-haul tractor trucks are the most challenging type of HDV to electrify because they require the largest-capacity battery pack. [...] The foregoing evidence of substantial opportunities for economies of scale and innovation and the historical tendency of forecasters other than BNEF to underestimated future battery cost reductions supports a strong outlook for the continuation of Wright’s Law effects on HDV battery packs. [...] The prior forecast draws on an HDV battery pack price outlook by the ICCT.78 The ICCT’s forecast—which is a freely available reference, unlike BNEF’s proprietary insights—served as the basis for expected future HDV battery pack prices in the EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Phase 3 extension of HDV emissions standards. [...] The ICCT’s indirect cost adjustment factor is similar, conceptually and in magnitude, to the “retail price equivalent” calculation in the EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis.94 Data Inputs To estimate future costs, our primary source is the ICCT report Purchase Costs of Zero-Emission Trucks in the United States to Meet Future Phase 3 GHG Standards.95 This open-source study served as the foundat. [...] Then, we apply this percentage decrease to the per- vehicle battery cost in Table A5 of the ICCT’s 2023 report.100 The incremental cost of replacing a diesel HDV with a battery electric one is calculated as the price of the diesel vehicle subtracted from the BEV price.