Social Protection Expenditure and Budget Management in Nigeria (English)

Over 40 percent, or some 83 million people, were living in extreme poverty in 2019 (World Bank 2022b). The poverty rate, and consequently, the number of people living in extreme poverty is expected to have increased since due to a string of macroeconomic crises including high inflation and currency devaluation. Many people, over 20 percent of the total population, live just above the poverty line, making them vulnerable to falling into poverty with small economic shocks. Unfortunately, the poor and vulnerable also tend to face multiple concurrent shocks (chapter 1). The magnitude of poverty and vulnerability necessitates a strong social protection system. Recognizing the deep issue of poverty in Nigeria, the government has an ambitious goal to lift over 100 million people out of poverty by 2030. Accomplishing this goal requires, among others, redistributing resources towards the poor and vulnerable. Social protection programs and systems accomplish exactly that. The government has also recognized the role of social protection systems and programs in achieving its poverty eradication goal, as reflected in the National Social Protection Policy Framework. The framework, now approved by the National Economic Council and the Federal Executive Council, has informed the drafting of a bill that will institutionalize social protection in Nigeria. The framework seeks to provide broad social protection coverage, including a minimum floor of social protection coverage to everyone. Against this background, this chapter delves into the fiscal expenditures on social protection in Nigeria. It primarily uses data from the harmonized federal and state level budget and expenditure data compiled by the (World Bank 2022a). The data is supplemented by data collected by the World Bank team through its operational engagement as well as through some dedicated data collection effort. Box 1 describes the key datasets used in this chapter and their limitations.