Global trends to 2040 :Choosing Europe's future

This fourth ESPAS Global Trends Report is a contribution to the ongoing debate about the future of Europe, its role in the world and its ability to adapt and change to meet fresh challenges and harness new opportunities. In common with other foresight studies, this report does not predict the future. Rather, it attempts to identify the key global trends, analyse their significance for Europe, assess the agency the European Union has to influence global thinking, and sets out some of the main strategic choices policymakers may be required to make — choices that will have a strong bearing on the kind of Europe we will live in by 2040. The report does not seek to offer policy prescriptions, nor does it approach the challenges we face through a particular political prism. Importantly, it does not represent the views or policies of any particular organisation involved in the process. Rather, we hope it can used by the incoming leaders of the EU institutions and their teams as a tool to help navigate the way ahead. For over a decade, the ESPAS process of informal and collaborative work on strategic foresight amongst officials in the EU’s main institutions and bodies, has had a clear ‘nudge’ effect, in encouraging them to develop their own foresight capacity. With foresight comes a perennial debate about its relevance to policymaking. Elected representatives understandably have a time horizon that is closely aligned with the mandate they have been given. However, there is a greater understanding today that embedding foresight in policymaking can help us anticipate the future and prepare better for the future we want, rather than being driven by events. In this year of institutional and political change in Europe, we hope this report will help to generate debate on the hard choices before us, and guide our political leaders – at this crucial moment for Europe and for its citizens.