THE DOSSIER - Post-Khamenei Iran: The Future of Evolutionary Regime Change

populist, Ahmedinejad would serve as a counterweight to the public influence of the left-of-center factions The logic behind facilitating Ahmedinejad’s rise to and as a result their dominant position in the popularly the presidency was twofold First, it was designed to elected institutions However, while Khamenei and his weaken the reformist and the pragmatic conservative allies were able to weake. [...] Ahmedinejad was an outsider to the political establishment and did not have a faction The founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah of his own, which was an opportunity for the Corps to Khomeini, was opposed to the politicization of the leverage the president’s need for allies to position itself April 2024: Post-Khamenei Iran: The Future of Evolutionary Regime Change 12 . [...] This has allowed Khamenei to shape the behavior of the Artesh ■ Intelligence Protection Service of the vis-à-vis the IRGC The Artesh likely welcomed this new Joint Chiefs of Staff role given its competition with the Corps and because ■ Intelligence Protection Services of Ministry of Defense it has always had much less access to funding, weaponry, and political influence.  ■ Inspector’s Bureau of t. [...] the scale of public disaffection The 2021 presidential election saw a record low turnout, and recent reports A decline in the influence of clergy means that the suggest turnout for the March 2024 parliamentary and military will become the locus of power within the Assembly of Experts elections was officially around Islamic republic, which has raised fears of an IRGC 40 percent, though other report. [...] of the Iranian state built around the concept of Velayat-e-Faqih (state ruled by jurist) but also the core Fourth, and perhaps most important, the regime of Shia Islam in which each individual believer follows has made several foreign policy gains over the past a marjaa (religious authority) in personal and social 15 years in the region via its proxies, especially the matters Many among the cleric.