(down 10 pts from start of 2024) Risk level – medium/high • The IRGC seized a Portuguese-flagged, Israeli-affiliated container ship in the Gulf of Oman. [...] In addition, China is the biggest importer of Iranian oil, and targeting the oil sector in Iran would in turn impact the Chinese economy. [...] This capacity is expected to rise dramatically in the future, especially with China’s advanced technologies and comparative advantage to the United States and most other countries in terms of the cost of building power plants. [...] A potential escalation between Iran and Israel could disrupt LNG cargo flows around the Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of global LNG commerce passes, adding to the complexity of sea lane security in the region. [...] Risk level – low/medium Key Stat of the Week • Iran’s oil exports were in the range of 1.6 million-1.8 million barrels a day in the first quarter of 2024, which is close to the 2 million barrels a day Iran exported prior to U.
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