May 2024 - Integrated System Plan needs greater ambition on DER to be a true whole-of-system plan

• IEEFA suggests that AEMO re-examine its rooftop PV forecasts in light of the technical potential estimated by the University of New South Wales (UNSW), the Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF) and the Australian PV Institute (APVI) and the increase in PV panel power density. [...] • IEEFA recommends that co-optimisation between the demand side and supply side be undertaken in the 2026 ISP, and that sensitivity analyses be undertaken in the 2024 ISP testing variations in the demand side and its impacts on the supply side. [...] The statement should be sufficiently detailed to provide a baseline for the identification of opportunities to promote the uptake of CER and distributed resources within each jurisdiction.” Lack of co-optimisation between the demand side and supply side At the moment demand-side measures and DER are treated as an input to the ISP process, and supply-side measures are designed to fit the demand sid. [...] As IEEFA wrote in our submission to the draft 2024 ISP process: “If it is not possible to do this for the 2024 ISP, then iterations in modelling could be performed to optimise between supply and demand, and various scenarios or sensitivity analyses could be undertaken.” IEEFA recommends that co-optimisation between the demand side and supply side be undertaken in the 2026 ISP, and that sensitivity. [...] There would be value in developing a high DER scenario or scenarios in the 2026 ISP and a high DER sensitivity in the 2024 ISP and comparing these to the other scenarios or sensitivities.