Le1,2,3, Andrew Robinson1, Aaron Dodd1, David Rolls1, and John Baumgartner1 1The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The Univer- sity of Melbourne 2School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne 3Melbourne Centre for Data Science, The University of Melbourne March 26, 2024 Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s Arndt et al. [...] 2023 Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s ii Arndt et al. [...] 2023 Cen t r e o f Exce l l en ce f o r B i o se cu r i t y R i sk Ana l y s i s Contents 1 Executive summary ix 2 Introduction 1 3 Methodology 3 3.1 User requirements analysis. [...] 25 7 Demonstrating the functionality of the simulation models 28 7.1 Constructing the network. [...] 29 7.3 Visualising the flow of containers throughout the system.
Authors
- Pages
- 109
- Published in
- Australia
Table of Contents
- 1 Executive summary 9
- 2 Introduction 13
- 3 Methodology 15
- 3.1 User requirements analysis 15
- 3.2 Methods search (targeted literature review) 16
- 3.3 Conceptual diagram 16
- 3.4 Model structure 17
- 3.5 Data cleaning and processing 19
- 3.6 Parametrisation of the model 20
- 3.7 Uncertainty, counterfactuals, sensitivity analysis 20
- 3.8 Proof-of-concept resource allocation tool 21
- 4 Conceptual diagrams 22
- 4.1 The container pathway 22
- 4.2 The cut flowers pathway 26
- 5 Model structures 29
- 5.1 The container pathway 29
- 5.2 The cut flowers pathway 32
- 6 Data processing and parametrisation 35
- 6.1 The container pathway 35
- 6.2 The cut flowers pathway 37
- 7 Demonstrating the functionality of the simulation models 40
- 7.1 Constructing the network 40
- 7.2 Querying the network 41
- 7.3 Visualising the flow of containers throughout the system 42
- 8 Analysis of the container pathway 46
- 8.1 Uncertainty in outputs 46
- 8.2 Counterfactual analysis 46
- 8.2.1 Increasing the proportion of CAL-like countries 47
- 8.2.2 Changes in the proportion of empty CAL containers 48
- 8.2.3 Changes in the rate of full CAL containers going to rural vs. metro 48
- 8.2.4 Changes in the proportion of containers participating in the SCHS 49
- 8.2.5 Changes in the inspection rate of SCHS containers 49
- 8.2.6 Changes in the proportion of containers requiring a full unpack 50
- 8.3 Sensitivity analysis 51
- 8.3.1 Changes in inspection effectiveness 51
- 8.3.2 Changes in treatment effectiveness 52
- 8.3.3 Run time of the sensitivity analyses 54
- 8.4 Caveats and considerations 54
- 9 Analysis of the cut flowers pathway 56
- 9.1 Uncertainty in outputs 56
- 9.2 Counterfactual analysis 56
- 9.2.1 Changes in the proportion of lines from high risk countries 57
- 9.2.2 Changes in the proportion of lines carrying flowers from high risk countries 58
- 9.2.3 Changes in the proportion of lines that are inspected internally 59
- 9.3 Sensitivity analysis 60
- 9.3.1 Changes in inspection effectiveness 60
- 9.3.2 Changes in treatment effectiveness 61
- 9.4 Caveats and considerations 61
- 10 Resource Allocation Tool 65
- 10.1 Overview of the Tool 65
- 10.2 User interface 66
- 10.2.1 Global settings 66
- 10.2.2 Analyses—Compare scenarios 66
- 10.2.3 Analyses—Standard Value Model 72
- 11 Discussion and recommendations 74
- 11.1 Questions that can be answered with this research 74
- 11.2 Optimising investment in risk controls 74
- 11.3 Generalisation of pathways 75
- 11.4 Operationalising the project outputs 75
- 11.5 Recommendations 76
- Bibliography 77
- A Provided reading material 80
- A.1 Container pathway 80
- A.2 Cut flowers pathway 83
- B Consultation with DAFF experts 84
- C Deriving the structure of the model (technical details) 85
- D Annotated structure of the container pathway BN 92
- E Additional results on the counterfactual analysis of the container pathway 94
- F Additional results on the uncertainty in outputs of the cut flowers pathway 99
- G Technical details regarding the cut flowers data processing 100
- G.1 Assumptions made in the cut flowers data processing 100
- G.2 Additional caveats with the cut flowers data 101
- H Improvements to the Value Model 104
- H.1 Improved simulation algorithm 104
- H.2 targets workflow 108
- H.3 Replacing deprecated dependencies 109
