We use data from the Population Assessment of Tobacco Use and Health (PATH), a longitudinal data set including self-reported and biomarker measures of tobacco use, to examine the effects of state-level tobacco 21 (T21) laws on smoking and vaping. T21 laws reduce self-reported cigarette smoking among 18-to-20 year olds, concentrated in males. Initial non-users who “age-out” of treatment are less likely to subsequently initiate self-reported smoking or vaping. Treated smokers are less likely to buy their own cigarettes and more likely to buy cigarettes in a different state. Biomarker results are mixed, and we find some evidence of a reduction in nicotine exposure but less evidence for a reduction in exposure to tobacco. Finally, we test for non-classical measurement error. T21 laws reduce the probability that clinically identified likely cigarette smokers self-report as smokers, which may increase the apparent effect of T21 laws on cigarette smoking as measured by self-reports.
Authors
- Acknowledgements & Disclosure
- The authors thank participants at the International Atlantic Economic Association 2021 Conference, American Society of Health Economists 2022 Annual Meeting, Tobacco Online Policy Seminar, and the University of Wisconsin - Madison for helpful comments and suggestions. The authors declare no financial conflicts of interest and received no external funding for this research. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w32520
- Published in
- United States of America
Table of Contents
- Introduction 3
- Background 5
- Data 7
- The Population Assessment of Tobacco Use and Health 7
- Tobacco-related Policies and State Measures 9
- Analytical Sample 10
- Methods 11
- Results 13
- Self-Reported Smoking and Vaping Participation 13
- Effects by Sex 15
- Analysis of Purchase Behaviors 15
- Biomarkers 16
- Investigation: Confounding from Other Related Products 17
- Investigation: Differential Sample Effects 18
- Self-Reporting Bias and T21 Treatment: Concerns of Non-Classical Measurement Error 19
- Robustness to Heterogeneous and/or Dynamic Treatment Effects 21
- Conclusion 22
- Appendices 39
