Repurposing Agricultural Support Policies for Sustainable Food Systems -Toolkit

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Table of Contents

• ABBREVIATIONS 8
• ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 10
• GLOSSARY 11
• INTRODUCTION 15
• Module 1: Setting the Repurposing Agenda 25
• 1.1. DESCRIBING THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC CONTEXT 25
• 1.2. REVIEWING AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL POLICY FRAMEWORKS 27
• 1.3. ASSESSING THE COHERENCE OF EXISTING POLICIES 28
• 1.3.1. Coherence with Government Objectives 30
• 1.3.2. Coherence of Government Policies 30
• 1.3.3. Coherence in Terms of Policy Effects 30
• 1.4. POLICY DIALOGUE TO SET THE REPURPOSING AGENDA 33
• 1.4.1. Policy Dialogue at the Global Level 33
• 1.4.2. Country-Level Policy Dialogue 36
• 1.5. USING EVIDENCE IN POLICY DIALOGUES 38
• 1.5.1. Barriers to the Supply and Use of Evidence in a Policy Dialogue About Repurposing 39
• 1.5.2. Enablers of an Evidence-informed Policy Dialogue 40
• 1.6. ASSESSING THE IMPLEMENTABILITY OF REPURPOSING STRATEGIES 41
• Module 2: Public Expenditures on Agriculture 45
• 2.1. MEASURING PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON AGRICULTURE 47
• 2.1.1. Why Monitor Public Expenditure on Agriculture 47
• 2.1.2. Country-level Analysis: Public Expenditure Reviews 49
• 2.1.3. Key Public Spending Indicators and Data Needs 52
• 2.2. GUIDE FOR CALCULATING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE INDICATORS 59
• 2.2.1. Data Collection and Preparation 60
• 2.2.2. Data Classification 64
• Module 3: Price Incentives for Agricultural Commodities 73
• 3.1. KEY PRICE INCENTIVE INDICATORS: DEFINITIONS, CALCULATION, AND INTERPRETATION 73
• 3.1.1. Data Needs for Price Incentive Analysis 75
• 3.1.2. Calculating Price Incentive Indicators 76
• 3.1.3. Interpreting Price Incentive Indicators 83
• 3.2. GUIDE FOR PRICE INCENTIVE ANALYSIS 90
• 3.2.1. Preparing for Price Incentive Analysis 90
• 3.2.4. The Nominal Rate of Assistance 99
• 3.2.3. The Nominal Rate of Protection 99
• 3.2.2. Price Gap Estimation 96
• 3.2.5. The Market Development Gap 100
• Module 4: Methods to Evaluate Policy Impacts 103
• 4.1. KEY CONSIDERATIONS TO GUIDE SELECTION OF THE MOST APPROPRIATE TOOL 104
• 4.1.1. Defining the Outcome(s) of Interest and Analytical Instruments 104
• 4.1.2. Available Methodological Approaches 106
• 4.2. SIMULATION-BASED MODELING METHODS 108
• 4.3. ECONOMETRIC METHODS 111
• 4.3.1. Randomized Control Trials 111
• 4.3.2. Differences-in-Differences 112
• 4.3.3. Regression Discontinuity 113
• 4.3.4. Instrumental Variables 114
• 4.4. QUALITATIVE METHODS 115
• 4.5. THE NECESSITY FOR MULTIPLE METHODS 116
• Module 5: Tools to Understand the Political Economy of Repurposing Agricultural Policies 119
• 5.1. CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS 119
• 5.1.1. What is Political Economy Analysis? 119
• 5.1.2. The Advocacy Coalition Framework 120
• 5.3.1. The Multiple Streams Framework 123
• 5.3.2. The Kaleidoscope Model 125
• 5.2. PRACTICAL STEPS TO UNDERTAKE POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS 127
• 5.2.1. Introduction: Key Variables and Levels of Analysis 127
• 5.2.2. The Macro Level: Characterizing Country Context 129
• 5.2.3. The Meso Level: Characterizing Food and Agriculture Institutions 131
• 5.2.4. The Micro Level: Political Economy Analysis of a Reform 132
• CONCLUSIONS AND KEY TAKEAWAYS 136
• REFERENCES 139
• APPENDIX: Terms of Reference for Study on Repurposing Agricultural Subsidies 153
• ANNEX 157
• Table 1.1 Key Variables and Sources 26
• Table 1.2 Policy Coherence Assessment Summary, Mali 31
• Table 1.3 Global Policy Dialogue Avenues in the Repurposing Policies Agenda 34
• Table 2.1 Functional Classification of food and agricultural projects and expenditure 62
• Table 2.2 Examples of Agriculture Programs’ Functional Classification 68
• Table 2.2 Examples of Agriculture Programs’ Functional Classification 69
• Table 2.4 Example of Approximating Spending on Each Commodity 71
• Table 2.5 Example Spending for Maize (Year 1) 71
• Table 3.1 Data Needs and Most Common Data Sources for Calculating Price Incentive Indicators 76
• Table 3.2 CIF Price in Dakola for Rice Imported from Thailand 79
• Table 3.3 Reference prices for rice in Burkina Faso in 2013-2016 80
• Table 3.4 Price Gaps and Nominal Rates of Protection for rice in Burkina Faso in 2013–2016 81
• Table 3.5 Share of Commodities in Agricultural Production Value in Bangladesh, (Average for 2011–2020) 91
• Table 3.6 Commodity Data, Sources, and Examples for Wheat and Barley 94
• Table 3.7 Examples and Sources of Information on Policies Affecting Prices, by Policy Type 95
• Table 3.8 Key Data and Calculation of the PG for Imported Rice in Bangladesh, 2019 97
• Table 3.9 Calculation of the Price Gap for a Net Exporter of Wheat 98
• Table 3.10 NRP at the Farm Gate for Rice in Bangladesh, 2019 99
• Table 3.11 NRA for Rice in Bangladesh, 2019 99
• Table 3.12 Calculating MDG (Absolute Terms) 101
• Table 4.1 Summary of Strengths and Limitations of Different Modeling Approaches 107
• Table 4.2 Summary of Strengths and Limitations of Different Econometric Methods for Evaluating Policies 114
• Table 5.1 Narratives of the Two Discourse Coalitions 122
• Table 5.2 Indicators to Characterize the Country Context 130
• Table A.1 Key Barriers and Enablers for Evidence Demand and Supply in Repurposing Policy Dialogue 157
• Table A.2 Mapping a Subsidy Reform with the UIF: Factors and Key Questions 158
• Table A.3a PEs that directly benefit agents in the agriculture sector 160
• Table A.3b PEs that collectively benefit the agriculture sector rather than a specific agent 161
• Table A.4 Rural Support Expenditures Classification 162
• Table A.5 Selected PEA Tools and Approaches 162
• Box 1.1  Rwanda’s Agricultural Policy Strategies 29
• Box 1.2  Mali’s Agricultural Policy Coherence, Based on Public Expenditure Review 31
• Box 2.1  Ag-Incentives and the International Organizations Consortium for Measuring the Policy Environment in Agriculture 47
• Box 2.2  Trends of Public Expenditure on Agriculture in Mali and coherence against key strategic objectives 55
• Box 2.3  MAFAP Public Expenditure Classification and COFOG 58
• Box 3.1  Case Study: Calculating the RP, PG, and NRP for Rice in Burkina Faso 79
• Box 3.2  Price Incentive Indicators to Inform Country-Level Policy Change: Cotton in Mozambique 85
• Box 3.3  Farm Input Subsidies Narrowing Price Disincentives: The Case of Maize in Malawi 87
• Box 3.4  The Market Development Gap for Imported Rice in Burkina Faso and Exported Cotton in Mozambique 89
• Box 5.1  Why is Subsidy Policy Reform So Difficult? Insights from an Advocacy Coalition Framework Case Study of Electricity Subsidies for Groundwater Irrigation in India 121
• Box 5.2  Using the MSF to Analyze the Introduction of Soda Tax in France 124
• Box 5.3  Using the Kaleidoscope Model to understand the political economy of input subsidy reform in Zambia 126
• Box 5.4  Macro- and Meso-level Political Economy in Tanzanian Agriculture: Analyzing Rice Policy Implementation 131
• Figure I.1 Agricultural Policy Support Instruments and Indicators 18
• Figure I.2 Level and Composition of Global Support to Food and Agriculture (US$ Billion, Average 2013–2018) 20
• Figure I.3 Nominal Rate of Assistance by Income Group 21
• Figure 1.1  Key Agricultural Policy Frameworks, Rwanda 29
• Figure 1.2 The Role of Coordination Institutions and Property Rights in Responding to Climate Change 38
• Figure 1.3 Policy Implementation Domains 42
• Figure 2.1 Classification of Public Expenditure 54
• Figure 2.2 Agricultural Public Expenditure in Mali 55
• Figure 2.3 Average Composition of Agricultural PE in Mali, 2005–2017 56
• Figure 2.4 Funding for Food and Agriculture by Source 56
• Figure 2.5 Key Aggregated Indicators of Public Expenditure 59
• Figure 2.6 Example Structure of Public Expenditure Raw Data 64
• Figure 2.7 Classification Tree for Agrifood Public Expenditures 65
• Figure 2.8 Classification Tree for Administrative Costs 66
• Figure 2.9 Classification Tree for Multipurpose Projects 67
• Figure 2.10 Decision Tree for Sectoral Classification 70
• Figure 3.1 NRP for Cotton at the Farm Gate in Selected East and Southern African Countries 85
• Figure 3.2 Nominal Rate of Protection and Assistance for Maize in Malawi 87
• Figure 3.3 MDG for Rice in Burkina Faso 89
• Figure 3.4 MDG for Cotton in Mozambique 90
• Figure 4.1 Analytical Approach Decision Tree 106
• Figure 4.2 Impacts of Country-Specific Repurposing Scenarios 110
• Figure 5.1 The ACF 121
• Figure 5.2 The MSF 123
• Figure 5.3 The Kaleidoscope Model of Policy Change 125
• Figure 5.4 Political Economy Analysis Building Block Variables 128
• Figure 5.5 The Three Levels of Political Economy Analysis 129
• Figure 5.6 Process Net-Map of Agricultural Policy Processes 134