Energy supply security remains a central pillar of the global policy agenda as international oil trade flows are upended by wide-ranging sanctions on Russia and attacks on tankers transiting the critical Red Sea shipping corridor. At the same time, Asia’s growing structural shortfall in crude and oil products and the ever‑expanding supply surplus in the Atlantic Basin are creating new trade routes in the global oil market. This eastward shift to non-OECD Asia, especially China and India, is coinciding with a multitude of new challenges driving oil market activity as the energy transition gathers pace. Increased use of EVs, emerging clean energy technologies and more expansive efficiency policies are combining to chart a much slower growth trajectory for oil demand, plateauing towards the end of our 2023-2030 forecast period. Oil 24 , the IEA’s medium-term outlook, explores these critical developments and their impact on the global oil market.
Oil 2024 looks beyond the short-term horizon covered in the IEA’s monthly Oil Market Report to provide a comprehensive overview of evolving oil supply and demand dynamics through to 2030. The report provides detailed analysis and forecasts of oil demand fundamentals across fuels, sectors and regions. It also outlines projected supply from planned upstream and downstream projects around the world. Our findings provide compelling insights on spare production capacity, product supply and trade flows, as well as the implications of surging output of natural gas liquids (NGLs) in this era of petrochemical-driven demand growth.
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Table of Contents
- Oil 2024 1
- Abstract 3
- Acknowledgements, contributors and credits 4
- Table of contents 5
- List of boxes 5
- Executive summary 6
- Global oil markets navigate a challenging landscape 6
- Surplus global supply capacity will reach unprecedented levels by 2030 7
- World oil demand tempered by clean energy transition 8
- Upstream investments and oil supply on the rise 9
- Refiners adjust to slowing demand for refined fuels 9
- Global oil trade will continue its eastward shift 10
- Demand 11
- Global summary 11
- World oil demand on course to plateau by 2030 11
- Oil demand growth to decouple from slower GDP expansion 12
- Emerging Asia and petrochemicals dominate growth 13
- Fundamentals 16
- Green shoots emerging, but GDP growth remains below trend 16
- Scenarios show price impact on oil demand 18
- Road fuel demand approaching peak 20
- EVs to curtail consumption of key fuels 20
- Efficiency improvements continue to reduce fuel use 21
- Behavioural pandemic-era mobility transformations persist 22
- Efficiencies slow jet and marine fuel growth 25
- Jet fuel will only surpass 2019 levels by 2027 25
- Slowing trade and IMO efficiencies erode marine fuel growth 26
- Oil displacement in power generation 27
- Oil burn set to plummet as Saudi ambitions come into focus 27
- Petrochemicals lead growth 29
- Use of feedstock products will expand throughout the decade 29
- Chinese and US petrochemical market shares expanding 30
- Naphtha crackers and traditional exporters under pressure 32
- Demand developments by region 35
- North American, European oil demand contracts 35
- Asia Pacific propels global demand growth 37
- China oil demand heading for plateau 38
- India leads world in fuel demand growth 40
- Africa leads other emerging markets growth 43
- Supply 47
- Global summary 47
- Oil production capacity far outpaces demand, boosting spare supply to record highs 47
- World producers to pump more than enough to keep market in balance 49
- Investment and exploration 51
- Capex continues to grow in the Americas, Middle East 51
- Recently approved projects to compensate for pandemic underinvestment 55
- OPEC+ supply 58
- Middle East drives OPEC+ capacity increase 58
- Saudi, UAE fuel gains in OPEC+ oil capacity 59
- Iran ramps up supply but sanctions stall capacity growth 64
- Russian growth trajectory upended by war on Ukraine 65
- Downward spiral for African OPEC+ 67
- Mexico slumps, Venezuela stabilises 68
- Non-OPEC+ supply 70
- Non-OPEC+ supply growth led by the Americas 70
- Resilient yet slower US production growth 71
- Canadian oil sands grow with additional export capacity 76
- The Latin America FPSO factory keeps running 78
- North Sea oil pits energy security against carbon constraints 80
- Qatar grows, China peaks and Other Asia declines 82
- Bridled optimism builds in Africa 83
- Refining and trade 86
- Global summary 86
- Decelerating demand growth weighs on refining sector 86
- Americas upstream surplus matches Asian products deficit 87
- The twin challenges of falling demand and rising NGL supplies 88
- Product market dislocations boost Atlantic Basin cracks 89
- Refiners must navigate an array of challenges to remain competitive 92
- Refinery profitability is driven by the balance between crude and product market tightness 93
- Demand trends will likely dictate the rate of capacity closures 94
- Refineries production yield structure will need to change 95
- Rising US LTO and NGL supplies are the second challenge 96
- Surging NGL supply undermines refinery profitability 97
- Refining capacity 97
- Global refining capacity additions slow after 2026 97
- Refining capacity at risk of closure is increasing 100
- More Atlantic Basin crude to head to Asia 100
- Regional developments 101
- The Americas continue to drive Atlantic Basin surpluses 102
- Refining developments in the Americas 102
- Americas crude oil balances 105
- European demand downturn slashes refinery runs 106
- Refining developments in Europe 106
- European crude oil balances 107
- FSU to ramp up refinery capacity and runs 107
- Refining developments in FSU 107
- FSU crude oil balances 108
- African refinery capacity rises to meet stronger demand 109
- Refining developments in Africa 109
- Africa crude oil balances 109
- East of Suez markets dominate refinery capacity growth 109
- Refining developments East of Suez 109
- Middle East capacity additions slow by mid-decade 110
- Refining developments 110
- China 111
- OECD Asia Oceania 113
- Other Asia 116
- Product balances and trade 117
- Asian demand tightens product balances 117
- Americas product trade balances 120
- Europe product trade balances 121
- Middle East product trade balances 122
- Asia product trade balances 122
- Natural Gas Liquids 124
- Global summary 124
- Sustained growth ahead for ethane and LPG markets 124
- NGLs – the fastest growing segment of fossil liquids production 124
- Ethane markets 127
- China, the United States and Saudi Arabia drive petrochemical feedstock growth 127
- LPG markets 129
- Supply lags demand growth by the end of the decade 129
- C5+ from fractionation 131
- A substantial uplift to global naphtha supply 131
- Biofuels 132
- Government policies support biofuels growth 132
- Biojet demand rises to 150 kb/d by 2030 133
- Ethanol feedstock demand remains steady 133
- Tables 135
- Table 1 World Oil Supply and Demand 135
- Table 1a World Oil Supply and Demand: Changes from Oil 2023 136
- Table 1b World Oil Supply and Demand: WEO Regions 137
- Table 2 Summary of Global Oil Demand 138
- Table 3 World Oil Production 139
- Table 3a Selected Upstream Project Start-Ups 140
- Table 3b Selected Upstream Pre-Sanction Project 141
- Table 3c Non-OPEC supply 142
- Table 4 World Refinery Capacity Additions 143
- Table 4a World Refinery Capacity Additions: Changes from Oil 2023 144
- Table 4b Selected Refinery Crude Distillation Project List 145
- Table 5 World Ethanol Production 146
- Table 5a World Biodiesel Production 147
- Abbreviations and acronyms 148
- Units of measure 149
