Context and outlook. Economic growth is recovering from the impact of the unfavorable global economic environment and domestic factors. Growth is expected to continue strengthening, supported by improvements in the business environment and subsiding global commodity prices. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank’s target range. Growth-friendly fiscal consolidation is underway, anchored by the ECF arrangement, and the current account deficit is narrowing reflecting fiscal consolidation, easing commodity prices, and tight external financing conditions. The medium-term outlook is positive contingent on implementation of the authorities’ reform agenda, anchored by the ECF arrangement. Climate change poses a major threat, as Tanzania is highly vulnerable but not well-prepared to address the effects of climate change.
- Format
- Paper
- Frequency
- regular
- ISBN
- 9798400278273
- ISSN
- 1934-7685
- Pages
- 161
- Published in
- United States of America
- Series
- Country Report No. 2024/187
- StockNumber
- 1TZAEA2024001
Table of Contents
- [For Publication] PR 3rd ECF review and RSF-Final.pdf 2
- [For Publication] Tanzania- 2024 - Staff Report - Third ECF Review and RSF Request.pdf 5
- Context 9
- Recent economic Developments 10
- outlook and risks 15
- policy discussions 16
- A. ECF Arrangement 16
- Safeguarding Macro-Financial Stability 16
- Promoting Sustainable and Inclusive Private Sector-Led Growth 17
- Creating Fiscal Space 17
- Modernizing the Monetary Policy Framework and Financial Supervision 19
- Advancing Structural Reforms 20
- B. RSF Arrangement: Addressing Climate Change Challenges 20
- Reform Area 3: Mainstreaming Climate in Budget and Investment Planning 22
- program performancE and modalities and other Issues 24
- staff appraisal 27
- A. Tanzania’s Exposure to Climate Change 51
- B. Tanzania’s Climate Change Strategy 56
- Legal and Institutional Framework 56
- Policies to Improve Resilience to Climate Change 59
- Cost of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Policies 62
- C. Strategies Under the RSF-Supported Program 65
- D. Collaboration with Development Partners 68
- A. Program Objectives and Outlook 89
- B. Macroeconomic Policies and Risks to the Outlook 90
- C. Structural Reforms 93
- Fiscal Policies to Promote Growth 93
- Mobilizing Tax Revenue 93
- Rebalancing and Improving the Quality of Spending 94
- Reducing Fiscal Risks 95
- Business Environment and Governance Reforms to Unlock Growth Potential 97
- Strengthening Monetary Policy and Financial Stability 99
- Reform Area 3: Mainstreaming Climate in Budget and Investment Planning 103
- A. External Debt 104
- Ceiling on Accumulation of New External Payment Arrears Incurred by the Central Government or the Bank of Tanzania 104
- Ceiling on the Present Value of New External Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Contracted by the Central Government or the Bank of Tanzania 104
- Definition, Coverage 104
- A. External Debt 113
- Ceiling on Accumulation of New External Payment Arrears Incurred by the Central Government or the Bank of Tanzania 113
- Ceiling on the Present Value of New External Public and Publicly Guaranteed Debt Contracted by the Central Government or the Bank of Tanzania 113
- Definition, Coverage 113
- Concessionally 114
- B. Fiscal Aggregates 115
- Floor on Domestic Primary Balance 115
- C. Monetary Aggregates 116
- Ceiling on Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the Bank of Tanzania 116
- D. International Reserves 116
- Change in Net International Reserves of the BoT 116
- E. Floor on Priority Social Spending 117
- F. Ceiling on the Stock of Domestic Arrears 117
- G. Ceiling on the New External Non-Concessional Borrowing Disbursed by the Central Government or the Bank of Tanzania 118
- [For Publication] Tanzania - 2024 - Debt Sustainability Analysis - Third ECF Review and RSF Request.pdf 124
- public debt coverage 125
- The DSA includes in the domestic debt stock the full amount of government verified domestic arrears, totaling about 1.1 percent of GDP at end-FY2022/23, and incorporates implementation of the authorities’ domestic arrears clearance strategy.4F The au... 126
- BACKGROUND ON DEBT 126
- Macroeconomic and policy assumptions 128
- COUNTRY CLASSIFICATION AND DETERMINATION OF SCENARIO STRESS TESTS 132
- EXTERNAL DSA 133
- PUBLIC DSA 133
- climate change vulnerabilities 134
- RISK RATING AND VULNERABILITIES 136
- AUTHORITIES’ VIEWS 137
- [For Publication] Tanzania - 2024 - WB RSF Assessment Letter - Third ECF Review and RSF Request - IMF_SEC Template.pdf 149
- A. Country Vulnerability to Climate Change Including Human, Social and Economic Costs 149
- B. Government Policies and Commitments for Climate Change Adaptation and Priority Areas to Strengthen Resilience 151
- C. Government Policies and Commitments for Climate Change Mitigation and Priority Areas to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 152
- D. Other Challenges and Opportunities 153
- E. World Bank Engagement 154
- [For Publication] BUFFED2476.pdf 156
- Program Performance 156
- Economic Developments and Outlook 157
- Fiscal Policy and Debt Management 157
- Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies 158
- Financial Sector Policies 159
- Structural and Governance Reforms 159
- Building Climate Resilience 160
- Conclusion 161
