Climate Adaptation Costing in a Changing World - Valuing Climate Adaptation Helps us Orient our Compass Toward Effective and Resilient Pathways (English)

Table of Contents

• Statement from the European Commission 12
• Statement from the World bank 13
• Executive Summary 15
• Introduction 28
• 1. Overview of the Literature and Methodologies for Costing cca 40
• Building blocks for costing CCA measures 43
• Examples from Europe: Elements considered by countries in practice for costing CCA impacts 61
• National-level planning 61
• Sectoral-level planning 64
• Programmatic planning 65
• Lessons learned from country examples 66
• CCA costs at European level: Status quo and further evidence required 69
• Current evidence at EU level on CCA costs ranges 69
• National-level estimates 71
• Extrapolating from country evidence to the European level 73
• Sectoral-level estimates 75
• Chapter summary: Toward scaling up and improving CCA cost assessments 76
• Summary of approaches and methods 76
• Research gaps and opportunities for further studies 77
• Recommendations going forward 77
• 2. Expanding the Evidence Base on Costing CCA with “Use Cases”: Results and Lessons learned 79
• Overview of case studies 81
• National planning assessment of CCA costs 83
• Added value and comparison to external national assessments 83
• New assessments and lessons learned 84
• Bulgaria: Informing NAP updates with costs of measures for adapting to wildfires and extreme heat 84
• Romania: Improving the evidence base for macroeconomic analytics and NAP measures 92
• Sectoral and programmatic planning assessments of CCA costs 99
• Added value and comparison to external national assessments 99
• New assessments and lessons learned 101
• Sweden: Example of adaptation costing and economic analysis for wildfire in the forestry sector 101
• The fictional case study of “Aurelia”: Climate-proofing selected critical infrastructure assets 108
• Croatia: Climate-proofing selected civil protection assets 113
• Romania: Flood-proofing and upgrading transportation networks 116
• Ways forward to enhance CCA costing evidence 122
• 3. Conclusion and Policy recommendations 124
• ANNEX 1. Background and Overview of findings on Climate Change Adaptation Costs 129
• ANNEX 2. Overview of Methodologies for Climate Change Adaptation Costing 145
• ANNEX 3. Details on Costings of cca Measures in Case Studies 150
• ANNEX 4. References 196
• Figure 1. Developing and adjusting adaptation pathways in Europe 18
• Figure 2. Illustrative Lower to Upper Bound of Annual CCA Cost for the EU-27 to 2030 25
• Figure 3. Annual CCA Costs Per Capita from Short-Term Policy-First National Assessments 26
• Figure 4. Structure and content of the report 31
• Figure 5. Map of country case studies analyzed and reviewed in the report 34
• Figure 6. Linkages to EU law and efforts 36
• Figure 7. Developing and adjusting adaptation pathways in Europe 44
• Figure 8. “Building blocks” and flow of decisions for costing CCA measures 46
• Figure 9. Benefit and Costs of Adaptation and Residual Impacts of Climate Change 47
• Figure 10. Guiding principles of climate risk management for climate-proofing projects 48
• Figure 11. Science-first, policy-first, and hybrid (adaptation pathways) approaches 51
• Figure 12. Iterative risk management and options for early adaptation 55
• Figure 13. Three types of early adaptation with strong economic rationales 56
• Figure 14. Total studies reviewed by type of assessment 70
• Figure 15. National-level studies reviewed by type of assessment and hazard 71
• Figure 16. Annual CCA costs from short-term policy-first national assessments 72
• Figure 17. Annual CCA costs per capita from short-term policy-first national assessments 72
• Figure 18. Illustrative lower to upper bounds of annual CCA costs for the EU-27 until 2030 74
• Figure 19. Climate risk and vulnerability in Romania compared to EU and OECD countries 93
• Figure 20. Projected compounded macroeconomic impact of climate change in Romania 93
• Figure 21. Romania: Estimated macroeconomic impact of extreme heat as a percentage of GDP without adaptation measures (left), and with adaptation measures (right) 98
• Figure 22. Increases in agricultural losses from flood-related transportation disruptions 118
• Figure 23. Investment needs and cost efficiency of resilient transportation infrastructure 119
• Figure 24. Analytics for use cases informing each other 123
• Figure 25. Changes in GDP in 2050 comparing the baseline and the medium impact scenario (2007 US$, millions) 184
• Figure 26. Changes in GDP on agriculture and forestry in 2030, 2050 and 2070 comparing the baseline and the medium impact scenario (%) 185
• Table 1. Summary of main challenges, limitations, and opportunities 27
• Table 2. Annual CCA cost estimates from selected long-term science first assessments 75
• Table 3. CCA Cost Estimates from selected assessments for floods 76
• Table 4. Five recommendations to strengthen the climate resilience of transportation systems 121
• Table 5. Overview of CCA costs at the national level found in the literature 130
• Table 6. Overview of CCA costs at the global, Europe, and regional level found in the literature 141
• Table 7. Overview of methodologies with their advantages and disadvantages 145
• Table 8. Overview of methodologies and approaches used for case studies 147
• Table 9. Overview of type of data and modelling results used for case studies 148
• Table 10. Overview of CCA measures costed addressing extreme heat risks in selected sectors 150
• Table 11. Overview of costs of CCA measures addressing extreme heat risks in selected sectors 154
• Table 12. Overview of CCA measures costed addressing wildfire risks in selected sectors 159
• Table 13. Overview of costs of CCA measures addressing wildfire risks in selected sectors 161
• Table 14. Overview of selected CCA measures in Romania addressing four hazards 163
• Table 15. Summary of sectoral / programmatic adaptation analytics for Romania 168
• Table 16. Considerations and inputs on impacts and adaptation for macro models 186
• Table 17. Examples of CCA measures considered for climate proofing of transport networks in Aurelia (non-exhaustive list) 192
• Table 18. Examples of CCA measures considered for climate proofing of power networks in Aurelia (non-exhaustive list) 192
• Table 19. Examples of CCA measures considered for climate proofing of selected critical infrastructure buildings in Aurelia (non-exhaustive list) 193
• Box 1. Readers’ guide 31
• Box 2. The European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) 35
• Box 3. Incremental versus transformational adaptation 49
• Box 4. Adaptation pathway and adaptive management 53
• Box 5. Considering benefits in the costing of CCA measures 57
• Box 6. Deep dives into projected climate risk for wildfires and extreme heat 86
• Box 7. Costing of a heat early warning system for Bulgaria 88
• Box 8. Deep dives into climate risk projections for wildfire and extreme heat 95
• Box 9. Portugal and Romania: Hypothetical applications of the methodology used for Sweden 107
• Box 10. Heat resilience improvements to existing health care facilities in Aurelia 111
• Box 11. Fire-resistant building standards for fire service infrastructure in Aurelia 112
• Box 12. Projected climate-related risks and impacts on critical infrastructure 114
• Box 13. Heat resilience improvements to existing buildings in Croatia 115
• Box 14. Lessons learned from wildfire risk analytics considering climate projections 122
• Box 15. CCA obligations under EU Climate Law 129
• Box 16. Macroeconomic models commonly used and how they consider climate adaptation 182
• Box 17. Fireproofing building code in Aurelia 195
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