Bottom Line
- Since 2020, the Sahel has experienced a string of coups and attempted coups from the Atlantic to the Red Sea.
- Six Sahel nations account for eight unconstitutional actions in a region that is the poorest in the world which has suffered from an increasing level of extremist violence.
- Russia has moved in to replace the vacuum caused by the withdrawal or ejection of US and French forces.
- While the prospects for democracy are dim in the short and medium term, the focus must be on the long game, with economic development as a priority to lift the overwhelmingly young population out of poverty.
- US policy towards the Sahel, as with all of sub-Saharan Africa, should be on developing long-term, democratic, stable relationships for the mutual benefit of all parties.
The COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to the human toll and negative economic impact in sub-Saharan Africa, also contributed to a decline in democracy. According to a May 26, 2021, article from the
Council on Foreign Relations, more Africans were living under fully or partially authoritarian states than at most points in the previous two decades. Citizen discontent with leaders’ attempts to remain in power through circumvention of the electoral process has led to political instability, demonstrations, and violence even in relatively democratic countries like Kenya and South Africa. While the
average level of democracy across the continent remains relatively stable in 2024, the continual incidents of military takeovers and conflicts in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Cameroon, pose challenges to consolidating democracy. Despite continuing progress in countries like Gambia and Zambia, and with nine African countries in the top fifty in the world in levels of democratic participation, the continental averages in representation and rule of law have
declined over the past five years.
The Sahel: A Belt of Instability
The region of sub-Saharan Africa demonstrating the most severe decline in democratic governance has been the Sahel, the semi-arid belt connecting North Africa across the Sahara Desert with the tropical savannahs to the south.
Since 2020, there have been
four coup d’etats and three attempted coups in West Africa and the Sahel. The four military takeovers in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, were ostensibly because of economic stagnation and continuing insecurity and were initially received positively by the civilian populations. That support seems to continue despite the
juntas not delivering on promises to improve security. The
median age of populations in the Sahel ranges from fourteen to twenty-six, and one would think that such a youthful population would be a seed-bed for popular uprising as it has been in other regions of the world, but this has not happened. The security situation in the countries of the Sahel has worsened, and despite being one of the world’s richest regions in terms of natural resources, in April 2023, the United Nations estimated that
food insecurity and malnutrition were on track to reach a ten-year high. Some 45,000 people were at risk of experiencing “catastrophic levels of hunger.” Up to 80 percent of the people of the Sahel live on less than $2 a day, with
poverty more widespread than in most other parts of Africa.
One-by-One, They All Fall Down
While there has been a distinct shift to the right and autocracy in a number of regions, the Sahel leads the way in unconstitutional and attempted takeovers since 2020. Between 2020 and 2023, there were eight combined
successful and attempted coups in the Sahel in six countries, from Guinea on the Atlantic to Sudan on the Red Sea.
Mali
Of the five coups that Mali has suffered since gaining independence in 1960, two of them were in 2020 and 2021. The country has faced an insurgency by the Tuareg (a minority ethnic group), jihadists, and criminal gangs since 2012, with limited success despite years of US, French, and other international support to strengthen Mali’s national army. In 2020, a colonel who had been trained by US, French, and German forces overthrew the elected president. This led to France withdrawing its forces from Mali and the junta subsequently toppling its own appointed civilian president, then turning to Russia’s Wagner Group for security support. This move has not lessened the insurgency and has led to massive human rights abuses against the civilian population.
Chad
Military officers seized power in Chad in 2021 after the death of President Idriss Deby, who had taken over in a coup in 1990. Deby had ruled for thirty years as a hardnosed autocrat but enjoyed US and western support because he’d aligned himself with international counterterrorism efforts. The leader of the coup was Deby’s son, Lieutenant General Mahamat Deby. Although the junta allowed national dialogue and a transition to democracy, there are signs that it is repressing opposition and taking steps to improve relations with Russia and
eject US military trainers from the country, in a move to retain power indefinitely. Insurgencies continue in the north and south of the country.
Guinea
A US and French trained officer led a coup in 2021, overthrowing the corrupt eleven-year rule of
President Alpha Conde, who had come to power under questionable circumstances after the country had suffered decades of autocratic rule with a promise to restore democracy. However, once in power, he proceeded to undermine it. Conde’s decision to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third term in office was very unpopular and the main reason stated by the junta for the takeover.
